HONG KONG, May 23 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ --
Housing market boom in Hong Kong has further to run
Data on the number of mortgage approvals in Hong Kong is due to be released next week by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) as part of its April Residential Mortgage Survey release. Mortgage approvals in March totaled 9,634, which marks a 34% increase on year ago levels.
Looking forward, the surge in housing market activity in Hong Kong probably has further to run. Aside from booming economic growth and a strengthening labour market, the housing market may yet receive additional stimulus from the HKMA in its bid to maintain the currency peg.
Weak US consumer in no mood to spark housing revival
Next week brings the Case-Shiller house price index for March, released on Tuesday 27th. It is likely to show prices plummeting in America's major cities.
New home sales data is released on the same day. They have already fallen by 53% from the peak in late 2005 and the slide probably continued in April. The purchase index from the mortgage bankers association slipped 5.6% in their most recent report.
More bad news on mortgage approvals in the UK
Further guidance as to the level of sales activity in the UK residential market will be provided by the release of mortgage lending data from the British Bankers Association on Tuesday 27th.
Actual transactions data for March was a little stronger than we had expected but for the whole of the first quarter, it was still more than 30% lower than in the same period a year earlier.
French house building more resilient than in the US and UK
Official data on French housing starts for April is due on Wednesday 28th. Starts increased by 2,800 in March, but are still down by 11% y/y (in the latest quarter) and by 24% y/y from their peak level reached in Q3 2007.
Whether March's sharp pick up in French housing starts constitutes a change in trend remains to be seen. Falling residential permit issuance (permits are down by 9.1% y/y) certainly presents a downside risk.
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