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China's Businesses are the Most Optimistic in the World for Investment in 2007

Grant Thornton
2007-01-10 11:14 1133

HONG KONG, Jan. 9 /Xinhua-PRNewswire / -- The initial findings from the Experian(R) Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR) 2007 show that business owners in China lead the world in business expectations towards investment in new buildings, plant & machinery, with an optimism/pessimism percentage (*see note below) of +75% for both questions (up from +58% and +53% respectively last year).

Table 1

Investment in new buildings (Optimism/pessimism %*)

Global ranking Countries/regions % balance

1 Mainland China +75

2 India +58

3 Armenia +57

4 Brazil +43

5 Malaysia +39

6 Philippines +38

12 Russia +31

18 US +28

19 Hong Kong +27

24 Thailand +22

25 UK +22

27 Japan +18

31 Taiwan +13

32 Singapore +9

East Asia average +53

Global average +36

Table 2

Investment in plant & machinery (Optimism/pessimism %*)

Global ranking Countries/regions % balance

1 Mainland China +75

2 Armenia +74

3 Poland +72

5 Russia +64

6 India +63

13 Brazil +52

16 Malaysia +44

20 Philippines +42

22 US +40

23 Hong Kong +38

24 UK +38

29 Japan +26

30 Singapore +23

31 Taiwan +19

32 Thailand +9

East Asia average +55

Global average +49

Source: Experian Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR) 2007

"With China's strong economic growth, we can say that exuberance of business owners is somewhat expected, especially in view of their strong confidence revealed in last year's survey. Nonetheless, it is positive to see that businesses on the mainland are so upbeat about investments in new buildings and plant & machinery, which demonstrates their vision for the future and their determination to strengthen competitiveness in order to cope with the keen competition in the global market," said Desmond Yuen, Partner and Head of China Services at Grant Thornton.

In fact China's businesses show strong confidence in most of the surveyed aspects of business. Businesses in mainland China are also very optimistic about turnover (+85%) and profitability (+78%), taking the 2nd most optimistic place in these two aspects, after India.

As for prospects for the local economy in 2007, China's business owners are also buoyant. Mainland China continues to be the driver of global business confidence, taking third position in the survey with an optimism/pessimism percentage* of +85% (up from +79% last year). Only two out of the 32 countries/regions surveyed -- India and the Philippines are more optimistic.

"From an international perspective, Asia continues to be the driver of global business confidence, as a result of its very strong economic performance, especially in Mainland China and India. The two largest countries in the world continue to grow at near double digit strength which is providing unprecedented opportunities for business owners, not only in their own country but also in terms of global expansion. 2006 saw considerable growth in their international business activities, acquiring significant businesses in the west. Also, it is the first time in the past few years that the region has not been impacted by health scares or natural disasters," commented Dr Tapan Datta, Experian's global economist.

Countries in Asia take the top four positions in the survey headed by India, with mainland China in third place (see appendix 2). In East Asia, the Philippines is the second most optimistic about the economy (from +71% in 2006 to +88% in 2007), and has grown faster than mainland China. With the corruption cases of President families and other political instabilities, Taiwan continues to have a negative confidence level this year. Japan has slipped to the bottom of the table although its confidence level has improved from -14% to -5%.

Confidence levels of business owners in the US continue to drop from 32% to 14%. In the past year, the US has faced a period of slowing economic growth and political instability. Issues from the change in control of the Senate to the growing backlash against the Iraq war appear to be leading to a more cautious outlook for business in 2007.

When looking at the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and mainland China), figures show that the expectations of these countries are quite positive in some aspects, which make them ranked among the top ten on the worldwide table. The results draw the world's attention to these emerging countries.

Appendix 1 -- Business Expectations (Optimism/pessimism %*)

Turnover

Global ranking Countries/regions % balance

1 India 90

2 Mainland China 85

3 Armenia 83

6 Singapore 79

7 Malaysia 77

9 Russia 76

10 Philippines 75

11 Brazil 74

18 Hong Kong 66

22 Thailand 61

31 Japan 31

32 Taiwan 31

East Asia average 67

Global average 69

Profitability

Global ranking Countries/regions % balance

1 India 83

2 Mainland China 78

3 Brazil 68

5 Philippines 65

6 Thailand 65

7 Singapore 64

11 Hong Kong 59

12 Malaysia 58

19 Russia 50

30 Taiwan 6

32 Japan 2

East Asia average 53

Global average 52

Exports

Global ranking Countries/regions % balance

1 Hong Kong 40

2 Malaysia 33

3 Greece 31

6 Mainland China 29

7 Singapore 29

13 India 22

16 Philippines 21

26 Taiwan 15

28 Brazil 12

29 Russia 9

31 Thailand 7

32 Japan 4

East Asia average 21

Global average 2

Selling Price

Global ranking Countries/regions % balance

1 Botswana 71

2 India 68

3 Russia 60

5 Philippines 56

11 Malaysia 42

15 Thailand 37

17 Brazil 35

23 Hong Kong 30

25 Mainland China 29

27 Singapore 28

31 Taiwan 10

32 Japan -6

East Asia average 20

Global average 31

Employment

Global ranking Countries/regions % balance

1 India 80

2 Philippines 70

3 Armenia 67

4 Mainland China 66

5 Brazil 54

6 Russia 53

12 Hong Kong 44

13 Thailand 43

15 Malaysia 41

19 Singapore 38

28 Japan 18

30 Taiwan 17

East Asia average 49

Global average 45

Source: Experian Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR) 2007

Appendix 2 -- Global business owners' confidence in local economy for 2007

Business Owner Confidence (Optimism/pessimism %*)

# 2007 2006 2005

1 India 97 93 88

2 Philippines 88 71 50

3 Mainland China 85 79 --

4 Singapore 84 64 62

5 Ireland 82 84 79

6 Netherlands 81 63 31

7 South Africa 74 80 84

8 Hong Kong 69 61 60

9 Sweden 67 51 52

10 Argentina 66 62 --

11 Germany 66 41 17

12 Mexico 62 68 47

13 Australia 61 64 78

14 Canada 60 57 72

15 Russia 57 21 14

16 Armenia 57 -- --

17 Luxembourg 49 7 --

18 Brazil 47 -- --

19 Spain 43 14 9

20 UK 43 8 46

21 Poland 42 26 21

22 New Zealand 42 23 64

23 Botswana 41 -12 --

24 Malaysia 38 36 --

25 Thailand 30 9 --

26 France 30 1 19

27 Greece 27 1 29

28 Italy 21 -8 7

29 US 14 32 62

30 Turkey 0 58 49

31 Taiwan -3 -19 14

32 Japan -5 -18 -27

Global average 45 39 41

Source: Experian Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR) 2007

*Notes: The figure is the percentage balance of the respondents who are

optimistic less those who are pessimistic. The highest possible

figure countries are able to record is +100% and the lowest is

-100%.

Notes to editors

About the Experian Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR) Entering its 5th year, the Experian Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR) was carried out among 7,200 owners of medium to large privately held businesses from 32 countries/territories during late 2006. Among them, 300, 250 and 150 medium to large privately held businesses were surveyed in mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan respectively. IBR began in 2002 and builds on the European Business Survey (EBS) which Grant Thornton ran from 1993 to 2001. In 2007, the survey's name was changed from the International Business Owners Survey (IBOS) to the International Business Report (IBR). The research was conducted by Experian Business Strategies Limited and Harris Interactive. For more information, please visit http://www.internationalbusinessreport.com .

About Grant Thornton

Grant Thornton is one of the leading accounting, tax, and business advisory firms dedicated to serving the needs of entrepreneurial and owner managed companies. In Hong Kong and mainland China, Grant Thornton has offices in Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, employing in excess of 650 people. Grant Thornton in Hong Kong is a member of Grant Thornton International - one of the world's leading organisations of independently owned and managed accounting and consulting firms providing assurance, tax and specialist advice to independent businesses and their owners. Firms operate in 110 countries in 520 offices with more than 22,600 employees. For more information, please visit http://www.gthk.com.hk .

About Experian

Experian provides an unrivalled understanding of consumers, markets and economies in the UK and around the world, past, present and future. The business is a market leader in consumer profiling and market segmentation, economic forecasting and public policy research, supporting businesses, policy makers and investors in making tactical and strategic decisions. Experian's economic forecasting arm, Business Strategies, has operations in sixteen countries: UK, France, Netherlands, Spain, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Hong Kong - China, Germany, Czech Republic, Ireland, Greece, USA, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. For more information about Experian go to http://www.experian.com.hk/ebs/ .

For further information, please contact:

Grant Thornton

Desmond Yuen (Partner and Head of China Services)

Tel: +852-2218-3113

Fax: +852-2218-3613

Email: desmond.yuen@gthk.com.hk

Estella Tsui (Marketing Manager)

Tel: +852-2218-3207

Fax: +852-2218-3707

Email: estella.tsui@gthk.com.hk

Experian

Dr Tapan Datta (Global Economist)

Tel: +44-207-355-8234

Email: tapan.datta@uk.experian.com

Bruno Rost (PR Manager)

Tel: +44-115-968-5009

Email: bruno.rost@uk.experian.com

Source: Grant Thornton
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