SHANGHAI, China, March 26 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Xinhua Finance eziData China Consumer Confidence Index (CCCI) was updated today, with the survey results showing that, despite of the negative influence of the high rising prices and falling stock market, Chinese consumer confidence rebounded by 0.5 point in March to 96.3, led by a rise in the future expectations encouraged by the recently held National People's Congress (NPC) and National People's Political Consultative Conference (NPPCC).
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For a graphical illustration of Xinhua Finance eziData China Consumer Confidence Index, please refer to http://www.xinhuafinance.com/en/charts/indicator/ccci/ccci0803_en.jpg .
Although the negative effect of the snow-storms in February started to fade away in March, the double pressure of rising general prices and a drastically falling stock market dragged down the current conditions index by another 0.5 point. On the other hand, encouraged by the recent political events (the NPC and NPPCC), consumer expectations ended the continuously falling trend seen since July 2007 and rebounded by 0.9 point. And for the first time in the survey history since April 2007, all three components of the future expectations index rose, namely, one-year personal finances, one-year business outlook, and five-year business outlook.
Under the support of the Xinhua Finance family, Xinhua Finance eziData China Consumer Confidence Index is produced monthly by eziData, a local provider of China consumer data, and in association with Dr. Richard Curtin. Dr. Curtin is Research Professor and Director of the Consumer Sentiment Surveys at the University of Michigan's Institute of Social Research. The survey this month was conducted through 1,534 telephone interviews from March 1 to 15, 2008. April 2007 survey results are set as the benchmark value of 100. More on the survey methodology can be found in the accompanying section.
The stock market fall in the last two months has affected the current investment returns and future expectations of the investors, causing a drop in the stock investment confidence that hit a new low since the baseline survey in April 2007. However, it is worth noting that, compared to the drastic fall in the stock index, the fall in the investors' confidence was far from being in proportion, indicating a more stable future outlook among this part of the consumers.
As leading real estate developers started claiming to lower the house price, debates on whether the real estate market had reached a turning point became heated, exerting influence on the decision making of the consumers. Many consumers started to consider buying a house while the price lowered, pushing the sentiment on house buying intentions in one year's time up again to get back to the January level, after a drop in February. On The other hand, consumer sentiment on house selling a year from now kept inching down, showing a strong wait-and-see stance on the part of the house sellers.
Consumer sentiment in March kept falling in Shanghai, yet rebounded in both Beijing and Guangzhou.
Sentiment among Beijing consumers rebounded 2.4 points to 98.7, with both current conditions and future expectations rising. Apparent rebounds were seen in current personal finances, one-year personal finances and five-year business outlook.
Sentiment among Shanghai consumers remained the lowest among the three major cities for the fourth month in a row, falling 1.6 points in March to 91.2. Both current conditions and future expectations fell.
Consumer sentiment in Guangzhou, however, rebounded 2.8 points to 96.3 after a 4.5-point plunge in February. Both current conditions and future expectations improved. Among the five components which constitute the confidence index, four of them (current personal finances, durable purchase plans, one-year personal finances, and five-year business outlook) showed considerable rebound except for one-year outlook on business conditions, which went up a slight 0.8 point.
As to whether consumer confidence will go further up or decline again in the next few months, eziData Chief Analyst Dr. Wintone Zhang said that it would depend very much on the trend shown in April. According to Dr. Zhang, if general prices stabilize and the stock market rebounds in April, then it would be very likely that consume confidence would keep rising. However, if confidence in April falls again, then it would probably be suggesting that China consumer confidence would fall again for the next few months.
Consumer Voices:
-- The general climate has come into being for China to develop in a
sustainable way. The government has made a lot of investment in the
infrastructure, and I'm sure the economy will grow steadily in the
future.
-- The topic of people's life is a key focus of the recent congress and
conference, and a lot of suggestions have been proposed to better it.
We are all supportive of the constructive measures proposed. It would
be great if our salary could grow together with the GDP and prices.
-- The fall of the land prices will directly affect the house prices,
especially for those in the city center. Right now more and more
houses are being built and the government is issuing policies to
dampen the real estate market. I might as well wait for the house
price to go down before buying one.
To find more about CCCI or subscribe to a full version of the survey, please contact us via info@eZiData.com .
Methodology
Xinhua Finance eziData China Consumer Confidence Index is produced in association with Dr. Richard Curtin, Research Professor and Director of the Consumer Sentiment Surveys at the Institute of Social Research, University of Michigan. The index is based on a monthly survey of around 1,500 Chinese households via stratified random sampling in 50 representative cities across East, Middle and West China using the same methodology as is used by the University of Michigan. All data is collected via computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI). Index of April 2007 survey is set as the benchmark (100).
Notes to editors:
About Xinhua Finance Limited
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About eziData
eziData is a local provider of China consumer data, serving both financial and consumer market participants. It aims to serve global and local business professionals with decision-making tools that relate to consumption in China and conform to international standards. eziData's comprehensive portfolio of high-quality consumer data products, which includes a structured real-time databank, delivers a broader and more insightful view of the market. For more information, please visit http://www.eziData.com .
