omniture

Preliminary Swiss Re Sigma Estimates of Catastrophe Losses in 2006: Benign Year for Property Insurers

2006-12-20 18:24 1503


ZURICH, Switzerland, Dec. 20 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- According to

preliminary estimates, natural and man-made catastrophes triggered total

economic losses of around USD 40 billion, and cost property insurers

worldwide USD 15 billion in 2006. Earthquakes, cold spells, windstorms and

also shipping disasters claimed numerous victims. In all, an estimated

30,000 people lost their lives in catastrophes.

Insured claims of just about USD 15 billion

After years of record losses, property insurers appear to be getting off

lightly in 2006: catastrophe losses of only USD 15 billion will allow them to

replenish their risk capital, depleted by record payments for hurricane

damage in 2005 and 2004. Up to now, only three loss events in the billion-

dollar range have made themselves felt: two tornados in the US and a typhoon

in Japan (cf Table of the most costly insured losses, below). Among the last

20 years, 2006 has produced the third-lowest insured losses, after 1997 and

1988. This is attributable mainly to the quiet hurricane season in the US

and surrounding countries. Unlike in previous years, Europe has also been

spared expensive catastrophes up to now; however, the time for winter storms

(remember Lothar and Martin in 1999) and floods (for instance "Christmas

floods" on the Lower Rhine in 1993) is by no means over. And finally, no

major industrialised regions have been hit by earthquakes, and very expensive

man-made disasters -- such as aircraft crashes or large-scale fires -- have

been conspicuous by their absence.

Total economic losses estimated at USD 40 billion

The geographic distribution of the biggest loss events is reflected in

the amounts of both the economic losses and the insured claims. As the

typhoons and earthquakes in 2006 hit mainly newly industrialising countries

where insured values are relatively low, the directly attributable financial

losses were quite mild, at around USD 40 billion. Of these economic losses

of 40 billion worldwide, only USD 15 billion, or less than one third, were

actually covered by insurance.

Catastrophes claim over 30,000 victims

sigma recorded nearly 140 natural catastrophes and more than 200 man-made

disasters. The number of victims varies widely from year to year; in 2006,

more than 30,000 people lost their lives in natural and man-made

catastrophes. It was earthquakes that caused the most fatalities: on 27 May,

an earthquake of magnitude 6.3 almost completely wiped out the city of Bantul

on the Indonesian island of Java. On 17 July, Indonesia was again shaken by

an earthquake. This quake, of magnitude 7.7, triggered a tsunami; quake and

tsunami together claimed 800 victims.

Windstorms and floods also claimed more than 11,500 lives in 2006, two

catastrophes hitting the Philippines: in February persistent rainfall

triggered a mud and rubble slide in the province of Leyte that buried the

village of Guinsagon with its approximately 1,000 inhabitants. In late

November, heavy rainfall in the wake of typhoon Durian (also known as Reming)

sent walls of muddy volcanic ash flowing down the slopes of Mt Mayon on the

island of Luzon, burying everything in their path, including the village of

Albay. Durian claimed 1,270 victims in the Philippines and more than 80 in

Vietnam.

El Nino inhibits hurricane formation

The "El Nino" phenomenon, which appears between September and December,

is accompanied by higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical

Pacific basin. The western equatorial Pacific has been experiencing an El

Nino phase with medium-strength typhoon activity since the autumn of 2006.

Typhoon Durian for instance wreaked devastation in the Philippines and

Vietnam, and Shanshan followed suit in Japan. In the tropical Atlantic

basin, by contrast, the gathering El Nino climate constellation was already

mitigating the formation of hurricanes in the summer of 2006. Consequently,

the US hurricane season, which lasts from early June to late November,

brought only two strong and five medium-strength hurricanes in 2006.

Table: The most costly insured events in 2006

Insured Date Event Country

losses (Beginning)

(in USD bn)

1,720 13.04.2006 Tornado with winds up to 240 km/h, US

hail

1,282 06.04.2006 Series of tornados US

1,034 12.09.2006 Typhoon Shanshan Japan

920 11.03.2006 Tornados, floods US

560 23.08.2006 Storms, hail, floods US

500 02.04.2006 Tornados and hail US

Table: The deadliest catastrophes in 2006

Victims Date Event Country

(dead and (Beginning)

missing)

5,778 27.05.2006 Earthquake (ML 6.3) destroys the Indonesia

city of Bantul

1,350 26.11.2006 Typhoon Durian (Reming), flash Philippines

rains, mudslide on Mt Mayon

volcano

1,333 15.01.2006 Cold spell; power shortages Eastern

Europe

1,026 02.02.2006 Ferry al-Salam 98 sinks off the Egypt

coast

1,000 23.04.2006 Passenger train collides with North Korea

goods train

1,000 12.02.2006 Rain triggers rubble and mudslide Philippines

For the chart of Insured claims 1970-2006, please refer to

http://xprnnews.xfn.info/swissre/20061220/claims.htm .

Definitions and selection criteria for sigma catastrophe statistics:

Natural catastrophes Loss events triggered by natural forces

Man-made disasters Loss events associated with human activities

Total losses Losses with a direct economic impact

Insured propertyclaims Part of total loss covered by property

insurance

Minimum selection criteria:

Total losses USD 80m

Or: Insured property Shipping: USD 16.1m

claims Aviation: USD 32.2m

Other: USD 40m

Or: Casualties Dead or missing: 20

Injured: 50

Homeless: 2000

Notes to editors

Swiss Re

Swiss Re is the world's leading and most diversified global reinsurer.

The company operates through offices in over 30 countries. Founded in

Zurich, Switzerland, in 1863, Swiss Re offers financial services products

that enable risk-taking essential to enterprise and progress. The company's

traditional reinsurance products and related services for property and

casualty, as well as the life and health business are complemented by

insurance-based corporate finance solutions and supplementary services for

comprehensive risk management. Swiss Re is rated "AA -" by Standard &

Poor's, "Aa2" by Moody's and "A+" by A.M. Best.

Source: Swiss Re
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