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China Labor Market Index of Job Vacancies Continued to Fall in the Second Quarter of 2018

2018-07-19 12:01 1186

BEIJING, July 19, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Zhaopin Limited ("Zhaopin" or the "Company"), a leading career platform in China focused on matching talent with skills and opportunities through their career lifecycle, and the China Institute for Employment Research ("CIER") at Renmin University of China released the CIER Employment Index Report for the second quarter of 2018.

Since the Chinese New Year holiday came late this year, the busy season for job hopping in China continued over the second quarter. Though job openings experienced an increase over the previous quarter, the number of job seekers rose at a faster pace. As a result, the CIER index continued to drop to 1.88 in the second quarter of 2018, which means there were 1.88 job vacancies for each unique job seeker. The CIER index in the second quarter was lower than 1.91 in the first quarter of 2018, and also below the level of 2.26 in the second quarter of 2017.

China's second-quarter 2018 labor market highlights:

  • As job seekers continued to surge, the CIER index dropped to 1.88 in the second quarter of 2018, below the 2.26 level recorded in the second quarter of 2017.
  • The trade/import and export sector was directly affected by the US-China trade war in the second quarter of 2018, as job demand decreased 13% year-over-year.
  • The intermediary services industry remained the best-performing sector with a CIER index of 6.91. The Internet and e-commerce sector fell to the third place among "best performing sectors".
  • Eastern China enjoyed the highest CIER index score of 1.46, followed by 1.33 for Central China and 1.11 for Western China.
  • The CIER index remained above 1 for second- and third-tier cities, while the index was below 1 for first and emerging first-tier cities.
  • The labor market competition for job seekers is expected to ease and the CIER index is likely to go up in the second half of 2018.

CIER index falling with more job seekers

Since the New Year Festival was in February this year, the traditional peak season for job hopping in China, and campus recruitment for college graduates continued to affect labor supply in the second quarter. While job openings grew 11.7% in the second quarter of 2018 over the first quarter, the number of job seekers also increased 13.3%, pushing the CIER index down to 1.88 in the second quarter of 2018, below 1.91 in the first quarter of 2018.

Compared to the second quarter of 2017, the number of job openings declined 6.3%, while the number of job appliers increased 12.4%. As a result, the CIER index of 1.88 in the second quarter of 2018 was far below the level of 2.26 for the second quarter of 2017.

CIER Index 2011-2018
CIER Index 2011-2018

CIER index by sectors

The gap between the best-performing sector and worst-performing sector expanded over the second quarter of 2018. The CIER index of the best performing sector was 12 times better than that of the worst performing sector, compared with a gap of 10 times in the first quarter of 2018.

The intermediary services continued to outperform all other sectors as the best-performing sector in the second quarter of 2018 with a CIER index of 6.91. The internet/e-commerce sector fell to the third place with a CIER index of 4.76.

Ten best-performing sectors in the second quarter of 2018

Ranking

Sector

CIER index

1

Intermediary service

6.91

2

Insurance

4.81

3

Internet/e-commerce

4.76

4

Real estate/construction/building materials/engineering

4.31

5

Education/training/college

3.57

6

Hotel/restaurant

3.25

7

Professional services/consulting (finance and accounting,
legal and HR, etc.)

3.22

8

Outsourcing service

2.96

9

Funds/securities/futures/investment

2.92

10

Medicine/biological engineering

2.88

Most of the worst-performing sectors were still traditional manufacturing industries, including aerospace research and manufacturing, printing/packaging/papermaking, and energy/mineral/mining/smelting. The CIER indexes for all of these under-performing sectors remained below 1.

Ten worst-performing sectors in the second quarter of 2018

Ranking

Sector

CIER index

1

Aerospace research and manufacturing

0.58

2

Printing/packaging/papermaking

0.60

3

Energy/mineral/mining/smelting

0.60

4

Environmental protection

0.62

5

Office supplies and equipment

0.62

6

Instruments/apparatuses/industrial automation

0.74

7

Petroleum/petrochemical/chemical

0.79

8

Property management/business center

0.81

9

Electricity/power/water conservancy

0.81

10

Medical apparatus/equipment

0.85

The trade/import and export sector experienced a drop in job openings in the second quarter of 2018, directly affected by the US-China trade war. The job demand in this sector fell 13% in the second quarter year-over-year. First-tier cities witnessed more severe decreases than smaller cities.

Year-over-year change in recruitment demand for
trade/import and export sector in the second quarter of 2018

First-tier cities

-21%

Emerging first-tier cities

-8%

Second-tier cities

3%

Third-tier cities

-1%

Fourth-tier cities

6%

Fifth-tier cities

16%

The intermediary service sector remained the best performing sector in the second quarter of 2018. The job demand in this sector increased by 22% compared to the second quarter of 2017. The demand mostly came from the third-tier cities and below.

Year-over-year change in recruitment demand for
intermediary service sector in the second quarter of 2018

First-tier cities

-11%

Emerging first-tier cities

-12%

Second-tier cities

7%

Third-tier cities

38%

Fourth-tier cities

115%

Fifth-tier cities

112%

The IT and Internet sector continued to slow down in the second quarter, as job demand dropped 6% compared to the second quarter of 2017. This was the first time that job openings in the sector decreased year-over-year since Zhaopin began to track the data in 2011. The job demand was also moving from first-tier cities to lower-tier cities. The IT and e-commerce sector fell to the third-best performing sector, as its CIER index plummeted to 4.76.

Year-over-year change in recruitment demand for
IT/Internet
sector in the second quarter of 2018

First-tier cities

-8%

Emerging first-tier cities

-8%

Second-tier cities

-3%

Third-tier cities

24%

Fourth-tier cities

15%

Fifth-tier cities

40%

The funds/securities/investment sector significantly declined in the second quarter of 2018 with job demand decreasing by 34% year-over-year. First-tier cities suffered more severe decreases than lower-tier cities.

Year-over-year change in recruitment demand for
funds/securities/investment sector in the second quarter of 2018

First-tier cities

-39%

Emerging first-tier cities

-22%

Second-tier cities

-10%

Third-tier cities

-12%

Fourth-tier cities

-20%

Fourth-tier cities

-9%

CIER index by occupations

The best performing occupations in the second quarter of 2018 included mechanic/operator, sales, community/residency/housekeeping, and software/internet development/system integration.

Ten best-performing occupations in the second quarter of 2018

Ranking

Sector

CIER index

1

Mechanic/operator

21.64

2

Sales

11.88

3

Community/residency/housekeeping

6.94

4

Software/internet development/system integration

6.85

5

Translation (oral and written)

6.76

6

Supermarket/hotel/entertainment management/service

6.76

7

Real estate development/broker/agency

6.61

8

Healthcare/beauty/hairdressing/bodybuilding

6.44

9

Transportation service

6.12

10

Biotechnology/Pharmaceuticals/Medical Equipment

5.91

The worst performing occupations in the second quarter of 2018 were PR/media, sales/business administration, property management, and manufacturing management/operation.

Ten worst-performing occupations in the second quarter of 2018

Ranking

Sector

CIER index

1

PR/media

0.98

2

Sales/business administration

1.14

3

Property management

1.14

4

Manufacturing management/operation

1.19

5

IT management/project coordination

1.20

6

Trust/warrant/auction/pawn

1.20

7

Environmental science/protection

1.20

8

Senior management

1.21

9

Project management/coordination

1.22

10

Quality control/safety protection

1.43

CIER index by regions and cities[1]

In the second quarter of 2018, CIER indexes for Eastern China, Central China, and Western China continued to decline from the previous quarter, but still above 1, which means there were more job vacancies than job seekers in the quarter. Eastern China continued to enjoy the highest CIER index score of 1.46, followed by 1.33 for Central China and 1.11 for Western China.

However, the labor market in Northeast China continued to deteriorate in the second quarter with CIER index dropping to 0.73.

CIER index by regions

Region

1Q 2018 CIER

2Q 2018 CIER

Eastern China

1.58

1.46

Central China

1.40

1.33

Western China

1.19

1.11

Northeast China

0.89

0.73

The CIER index was higher in smaller cities than that in large cities in the second quarter of 2018. Third-tier cities had the highest CIER index score of 1.56, while the first-tier cities suffered with the lowest of 0.71.

CIER index by cities

City

1Q 2018 CIER

2Q 2018 CIER

First-tier cities

0.71

0.71

Emerging first-tier cities

0.98

0.97

Second-tier cities

1.64

1.52

Third-tier cities

1.83

1.56

 

[1] Cities are categorized to tiers based on standard of CBN Weekly. First-tier cities include Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Emerging first-tier cities include Chengdu, Dalian, Dongguan, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Ningbo, Qingdao, Shenyang, Suzhou, Tianjin, Wuhan, Xi'an, Changsha, Zhengzhou, and Chongqing. Second-tier cities include Changzhou, Foshan, Fuzhou, Guiyang, Harbin, Hefei, Huizhou, Jinan, Jiaxing, Kunming, Nanchang, Nanning, Nantong, Quanzhou, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Weifang, Wenzhou, Wuxi, Xuzhou, Yantai, Yangzhou, Changchun, Zhongshan, Zhuhai. Third-tier cities include Baotou, Daqing, Hohhot, Huai'an, Linyi, Luoyang, Qinhuangdao, Weihai, Xianyang and Zhenjiang.

CIER index by size of companies

In the second quarter of 2018, large-sized companies retained the highest CIER index of 1.91, followed by 1.08 for micro-sized companies and 0.97 for medium-sized companies.

CIER index by size of companies

Company size

1Q 2018 CIER

2Q 2018 CIER

Large-sized (more than 10,000 employees)

1.91

1.91

Medium-sized (500 to 9,999 employees)

1.01

0.97

Small-sized  (20 to 499 employees)

0.85

0.79

Micro-sized (fewer than 20 employees)

1.27

1.08

CIER index by type of companies

The CIER index for most types of companies fell in the second quarter of 2018, except for wholly foreign-owned enterprises. Public companies remained the highest with CIER index of 1.02, followed by 0.98 for private companies.

CIER index by type of companies

Company size

1Q 2018 CIER

2Q 2018 CIER

Private companies

1.02

0.98

Shareholding companies

1.02

0.85

State-owned enterprises

0.90

0.87

Joint ventures              

1.04

0.87

Public companies

1.14

1.02

Wholly foreign-owned enterprises

0.74

0.92

Labor market outlook

The labor market competition for job seekers is expected to ease and the CIER index is likely to rise in the third and fourth quarters of 2018. The trade war between China and the US will cast some uncertainties over the labor market.

CIER Index Outlook
CIER Index Outlook

Methodology and how to interpret the data

Based on data from Zhaopin's online recruitment platform, the CIER index tracks the ratio changes between job vacancies and job seekers in a variety of industries and cities across the country, and identifies the overall trend in China's employment market. Jointly published by Zhaopin and the CIER at Renmin University of China every quarter, the CIER index has become a leading barometer of China's labor market and macro-economic environment.

The CIER index score is calculated by dividing the number of job vacancies during a specified period by the number of unique job seekers during the same period. A CIER index score of more than 1 indicates that the labor market is booming, with more vacancies than job seekers. A CIER index score of less than 1 indicates that the labor market competition is intensifying, with more job seekers than available vacancies.

For more information, please contact:

Zhaopin Limited
Ms. Serena Sun
roujia.sun@zhaopin.com.cn

ICR Beijing
Mr. Edmond Lococo
Phone: +86 10 6583-7510
Edmond.Lococo@icrinc.com


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Source: Zhaopin Limited
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