Chinese respondents are now less confident about the global and domestic economic situation
HONG KONG and MACAU, Dec. 21, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Confidence in the global economy fell in Q3 2012, according to a worldwide survey of 2,500 finance professionals from ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA (the Institute of Management Accountants) called Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS).
Sixty seven per cent of respondents now believe that the global economy is stagnating or reversing. Further analysis suggests that this latest fall in confidence is due almost entirely to changing business fundamentals - such as demand, access to finance, prompt payment and inflation - as opposed to respondents' sentiment. The downturn is firmly focused on the real economy with small and medium sized enterprises being the worst hit, something from which China is not immune.
The 15th quarterly GECS highlights continued uncertainty across the Asia-Pacific region, which is still feeling the effects of the economic downturn in China.
Ada Leung, Head of ACCA China says: "China was not the source of this global pessimism, but rather our neighbouring countries, who are suffering not only the Chinese downturn but the persistently sluggish recovery of Western economies."
"In previous quarters the survey revealed a divergence of opinion between respondents in mainland China and those in Hong Kong. This has now largely disappeared. Only 13% of respondents in China reported confidence gains, but 60% reported a loss of confidence, up from 53%. This ranks the GECS China sample as some of the less confident respondents."
When asked about their perceptions of the global economy, Chinese respondents had deteriorating views, with 82% of respondents believing that the worst is still to come, up from 69% in the previous quarter.
Ada Leung adds: "But despite this gloomy news, the fall in business confidence in China has slowed down in the last quarter."
In contrast, the survey saw a glimmer of hope in Western Europe, where respondents said that they had started to see the beginnings of a credible plan to resolve the region's sovereign debt crisis, the promise of a more active role for the European Central Bank as well as continued efforts towards fiscal integration.
The Middle East is now the most confident of the GECS regions, with 30% of respondents here reporting an increase in confidence, while 52% believe the state of the global economy is improving.
Survey editor Manos Schizas, Senior Economic Analyst at ACCA comments: "This quarter has seen business confidence fall for all the right reasons. Around the world, and with few exceptions, the fundamentals of the business environment are deteriorating, and businesses are once again having the kinds of liquidity problems we thought we had put behind us."
A theme that emerges clearly from the survey is the interconnectedness of the global economy. Raef Lawson, IMA's Vice President of research commented: "The slowdown in Asia; the Eurozone debt crisis; the sluggish US recovery; all are feeding into each other and no region is unaffected; in fact, the degree to which movements in the GECS indices are synchronised between regions is uncanny."
The China picture in detail
Here is the link to the full report:
http://www.accaglobal.com/content/dam/acca/global/PDF-technical/global-economy/tech-ms-gec15.pdf
Notes to editors:
About ACCA
ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) is the global body for professional accountants. We aim to offer business-relevant, first-choice qualifications to people of application, ability and ambition around the world who seek a rewarding career in accountancy, finance and management. As the first global accountancy body entering into China, ACCA now has over 22,600 members and 42,500 students, with 7 offices in Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong SAR, and Macau SAR.
Founded in 1904, ACCA has consistently held unique core values: opportunity, diversity, innovation, integrity and accountability. We believe that accounting professionals bring value to economies in all stages of development. We aim to develop capacity in the profession and encourage the adoption of consistent global standards. Our values are aligned to the needs of employers in all sectors and we ensure that, through our qualifications, we prepare accountants for business. We work to open up the profession to people of all backgrounds and remove artificial barriers to entry, ensuring that our qualifications and their delivery meet the diverse needs of trainee professionals and their employers.
We support our 154,000 members and 432,000 students in 170 countries, helping them to develop successful careers in accounting and business, with the skills needed by employers. We work through a network of over 80 offices and centres and more than 8,400 Approved Employers worldwide, who provide high standards of employee learning and development.
About IMA® (Institute of Management Accountants)
IMA®, the association of accountants and financial professionals in business, is one of the largest and most respected associations focused exclusively on advancing the management accounting profession. Globally, IMA supports the profession through research, the CMA® (Certified Management Accountant) program, continuing education, networking, and advocacy of the highest ethical business practices. IMA has a global network of more than 65,000 members in 120 countries and 200 local chapter communities. IMA provides localized services through its offices in Montvale, N.J., USA; Zurich, Switzerland; Dubai, UAE; and Beijing, China. For more information about IMA, please visit www.imanet.org.
