BEIJING, March 9 /PRNewswire-Asia/ -- Himfr.com
(http://www.himfr.com/hot-products/ ), one of China's leading B2B search platforms with more than 30 B2B industry websites to its name, has analyzed the chemical fertilizer (http://www.frbiz.com/buy-chemical_fertilizer/ ) supply and demand situation for 2009.
The domestic fertilizer (http://www.frbiz.com/onsale.php ) supply this year is seriously above estimated needs. As the market adjusts, fertilizer prices will fall to significantly below last year's level. Furthermore, due to drought conditions and the impact of worldwide macroeconomic concerns, winter wheat-producing areas' fertilizer demand will be reduced by 15%-20% in the first quarter of this year. The second quarter will see some gradual improvement, while July marks the start of the off-season for sales of chemical fertilizers.
Between February and April, northern China is in its top season for fertilizer demand due to winter wheat (http://www.frbiz.com/quality/wheat.html ) planting. However, because of a severe drought this year, the volume of fertilizer demand will drop 20%-30%. Therefore, in the winter wheat producing areas of China, this year's supply of chemical fertilizers (http://www.frbiz.com/quality.php ) will exceed demand. Also as a result of the drought, the fertilizer market start-up time will be postponed, meaning that the fertilizer markets in the northern region will not have a strong turnaround. Prices may also be rising less than normal.
March to May is the spring ploughing season in China. During this period, the northern region is normally planting corn, spring wheat, potatoes (http://www.frbiz.com/quality/potatoes.html ), cotton and soybeans. However, in North China, Huanghuai, Jianghuai and some eastern areas, there is a serious drought this spring and fertilizer demand will be affected to a certain extent.
Spring-sown crops, generally planted from May to June, are the top users of fertilizer. Sales during this period normally account for 40% of sales for the year. During this period, fertilizer prices will be at their full-year highs.
From July through the first half of September, most areas of China, with the exception of the south, are in the off-season for growing. As a result, prices for fertilizer, as well as coal (http://www.frbiz.com/quality/coal.html ) prices turn lower, and will continue to fall throughout this period.
By the end of October, the northern region enters its autumn sowing season, while the southern region ends its need for fertilizer and enters the winter storage stage. Market fundamentals dictate that sales will not increase during this time, and even if manufacturers adopt a production-limiting price policy, fertilizer prices will remain low.
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