HONG KONG, Aug. 15 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Data on labour market and inflation are due on Monday 18th and Thursday 21st respectively. The figures will provide some steer towards the near term outlook for rental growth in the commercial property market and some signs that the economy may now be slowing. The latest GDP release shows economic growth rose to 7.1% in Q1 2008 but this should mark the peak in the current cycle.
Employment typically holds a close relationship to office rents and fell by 1200 in the three months to June, a trend which is likely to worsen. The outlook for inflation and hence real disposable incomes will also be a crucial indicator to gauge whether the Hong Kong economy can weather an expected sharp slowdown in the external environment.
Further drop in UK asking prices
Monday 18th sees the release of the latest house price index. This series is interesting because it captures "asking" prices and thus to some extent reflects sentiment amongst sellers. The July survey showed prices slipping 1.8% following a 1.2% drop in June. It is likely that the August report will show a continuation of this negative trend as vendors display an increasing level of realism about the climate in the housing market.
US home builder sentiment to remain depressed
The home building sector in the US takes centre stage next week. We get an update on builder sentiment on Monday 18th with the release of data for August. July's survey saw a new lurch downward with the main index and all the three sub indices (present single family sales, single family sales in next 6 months and traffic from prospective buyers) all hitting new lows for the series which dates back to 1985.
Testing times for German housing market
German house price data for July is due to be released on Friday 22nd. On a monthly basis house prices have been increasing consistently since April. The latest increase of 0.7% in June brought the annual rate of decline down to 1.7%, which was the slowest since May 2007.
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